Paper and Pulp Industry Outlook 2025
The paper and pulp industry covers the manufacturing of paper and other paper products (e.g. packaging and tissue) from raw materials. These raw materials include wood pulp and recycled waste paper.
This industry is a very dynamic marketplace, influenced by multiple interrelating factors that affect the output and price of paper. For industry professionals, having a spotlight on future trends is essential for helping strategies around production planning and purchasing.
Our industry analysts utilise extensive data sources, gathering information both directly and indirectly to provide the most up-to-date forecasts, helping our clients succeed in this marketplace.
Key Points:
- After another volatile year in 2023, with heavy demand declines, 2024 saw a recovery across most P&B sectors.
- The Paper and Board sector is predicted to stabilise somewhat in 2025, with more “normal” rates of growth.
Expected Paper Price Trends in 2025
Paper prices in 2025 will be influenced by a variety of factors, including the cost of raw materials, energy, labour and transportation, as well as supply-demand fundamentals. The Packaging and Tissue segments are expected to resume positive performance, due to evolving consumer demand.
Macroeconomic factors will also play a crucial role in shaping paper price trends in 2025. High interest rates and geopolitical issues, including trade tensions and economic sanctions, are likely to have knock-on effects on the industry. These uncertainties may influence raw material costs and consumer purchasing power, further complicating the pricing landscape.
Download our latest Paper Price Forecast here.
What drives the price of paper?
- Environmental regulations: Tightening controls around emissions and environmental performance has seen significant changes in the industry in the last decade. This has not all been negative on the price, as innovation has helped the industry substantially.
- Sustainability: Often being pushed from environmental regulation and consumer demand. For example, well over 50% percentage of paper now comes from recycled paper.
- Currency fluctuations: As with any international marketplace, currency fluctuations will affect both the cost of raw materials and the cost of the final product.
- Import duties and tariffs: Small changes in tariffs can have a huge effect on price and consequently demand. Recent political changes and threats of tariffs have the potential to affect prices and create uncertainty within the marketplace.
- Supply and Demand: Shifts in production capacity and differing demands from consumer behaviours play a key role in price fluctuations and demand for different types of products.
- Competition: Low-cost countries increasing production have challenged the traditional paper production countries. For example, graphic paper production increases have been significant in China whilst declining in western markets such as the US, Canada, Europe and the UK.
- Cost of raw materials: Geopolitical events can have knock-on effects on prices. Recent unrest in Ukraine has disrupted energy supplies crucial to paper production.
- Innovation: Paper manufacturing has changed substantially in the last few decades often with a direct knock-on effect on prices. Technical innovations have been far-reaching including, for example the development of alternative bleaching technologies
- Changing economic conditions: Both local and global changes in GDP and Industrial Output.
Tissue Paper Industry Growth
One key area that has seen huge growth is tissue paper production. Factors including population growth, consumer behaviour, environmental and commercial changes have all contributed to the rise in demand and production for tissue paper. Find out more in our Tissue Paper market analysis.
Looking back at recent years in the Paper & Pulp Sector
Significant challenges have faced the paper market industry in recent years. Brexit in 2019, COVID in 2020, raw material and supply chain disruptions in 2021, Ukraine war and energy crisis in 2022 and destocking in 2023. This has all led to volatility in the marketplace.
Despite these challenges, there has also been seeds of transformation. Key areas include sustainability, innovations in recycled and alternative materials, investment in technologies and growth in packaging due to the ecommerce boom. These developments highlight the increasingly complex future of this marketplace.
Paper Industry in 2024
2024 has been characterised by unprecedented highs in pulp prices. There have been huge challenges for paper producers, with narrow margins affecting their pricing strategies to remain competitive.
There have been huge accelerations in greener practices, prompted by both consumer demand and environmental regulation. Investment in new methods of production have been adopted, good for long term output, but putting increased pressure on budgets that have already been strained with rising cost in areas like energy and labour.
Demand has continued to be strong in some categories, particularly packaging and tissue production, offset by declines in traditional segments such as printing and writing paper and newsprint.
EMGE Reports
As leading consultants to the world paper industry, our market intelligence reports are an essential addition for any industry affected by the fluctuations in the paper and pulp industry. They will help you and your team navigate these challenges and help your company maintain stability and profitability.
We specialise in a variety of related industries, for example, containerboard (including cardboard box prices), cartonboard and other packaging sectors. You can find all our latest updates including the paper and pulp industry with our detailed reports here.
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